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Category:American comics magazinesA new study from the University of Cambridge has found that climate change could deliver a devastating blow to the world’s cocoa crop by 2050, leaving a “gigantic gap” in the global market. According to the study, a previously documented crop shrinkage of up to 16 percent by 2050 could see the world’s total cocoa supply slashed by two-thirds.

The report, released yesterday by the Center for Research on Environmental Decisions (CRED), lays out what is the first “comprehensive assessment” of how climate change is affecting the cocoa sector. It shows that the climate impact on cocoa is already becoming “hard and fast” due to weather events such as the heavy rains and flooding that struck Cameroon last year, which brought short-term doom to the sector.

Estimated cocoa output has already shrunk by nearly 10 percent in the last 12 months, and futures experts have repeatedly warned that the sector is teetering on the edge of a major disaster.

The report also shows that with fewer, larger cocoa trees, the concentration of beans per tree will increase, meaning a larger percentage of mass in each “bushel,” which would make the product more appealing for processing.

“The scale of the possible shift in the future is large enough that some of us might have thought it not possible for the sector to be hit so hard,” study co-author Chris Field, professor of environmental sciences at Cambridge, told AgroParisTech.

Yet, these impacts are only expected to grow with climate change. “We are not yet in the final stage of the downward shift in production,” said Field. “The loss of roughly two-thirds of the sector’s harvest, as projected by 2050, would represent a catastrophic blow.”

At the same time, the study says that if climate change impacts are not addressed, cocoa production is likely to become a mere fraction of its current levels by 2050, with “irreversible damage” to economies in low- and middle-income countries.

For these reasons, the study recommends public support for investment in resilience for climate change mitigation. “Innovative, cost-effective solutions are available, but must now be deployed,” it says.

While the report is critical of the cocoa sector’s own approach, it finds that industry must begin to take responsibility

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